NEW DELHI, INDIA — India may witness a weaker-than-usual monsoon this year, according to the latest national forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department, raising concerns over rainfall distribution and its potential impact on agriculture and water resources.
Director General of IMD Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that overall rainfall for the entire monsoon season is expected to remain below normal across most parts of the country. His remarks come as part of an early seasonal outlook that closely monitors global climatic patterns influencing India’s monsoon.
He explained that while the general trend points towards reduced rainfall, certain regions may still receive relatively better precipitation. Areas in Northwest India, Northeast India, and parts of South India are expected to experience near-normal or slightly improved rainfall compared to the rest of the country, offering some regional balance.
Highlighting the underlying climatic factors, Mohapatra noted that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently transitioning towards a neutral phase. These neutral conditions are likely to persist until June, which is a critical period leading up to the onset of the monsoon, influencing its strength and spread.
Looking ahead, he indicated that changes may occur in the equatorial Pacific region after June, which could further shape monsoon behavior. Additionally, there is a possibility of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing during the latter half of the monsoon season, a factor generally considered beneficial for rainfall in India.
The forecast underscores the complexity of monsoon dynamics, which depend on multiple global and regional influences. While early predictions suggest below-normal rainfall, evolving conditions over the coming months will play a crucial role in determining the final outcome.
The IMD’s outlook serves as an important indicator for policymakers, farmers, and industries, as the monsoon remains a lifeline for India’s agriculture and overall economy.
